Collingwood and Carlton clash on Staurday afternoon at the G..

Collingwood v Carlton

MCG

Saturday, 2.10pm AEST

Collingwood has Carlton well and truly covered in their clash at the MCG on Saturday.

Many will talk this up as a “blockbuster”, saying current form can be thrown out the window, but the reality is one side is marching towards a genuine premiership opportunity, while the other is stuck in no-man’s land.

Collingwood are purring along nicely, following up their impressive win over the Saints two weeks ago with a mauling of the Tigers last week.

Dane Swan is in sensational form, averaging 37 possessions a game from his past seven outings. Carlton’s Andrew Carrazzo is the man most likely faced with the near-impossible task of stopping him, although coach Brett Ratten may surprise by opting for second gamer David Ellard. I’m tipping Swan will break the 40-possession barrier this time.

Backing Swan up in the middle is Scott Pendlebury who is laying a genuine claim for All Australian selection, while Dale Thomas has lifted another level this year, producing career-best form.

Then there is Darren Jolly, who started the season slowly but has quickly become a key man in this charging Collingwood line-up. Jolly is likely to smash the Blues’ Robert Warnock and Shaun Hampson.

Jolly has been backed up by Leigh Brown, who while not a natural ruckman has appeared to have found his niche. He imposes himself physically on games.

In the forward line Alan Didak appears at the top of his game, delivering on that great potential. The big question, of course, is can he maintain it come September?

Meanwhile, Carlton is fast becoming a one-man show. And even that one man, Chris Judd, no longer appears to be the force he was. When Judd was dominating at the Eagles he had a great support cast around him. At Carlton he may have some talented players around but they are failing to back him up.

Marc Murphy may still be racking up the touches but he struggles to have an impact. Bryce Gibbs’s use of the ball has deteriorated, and he is in such bad form that he is on the verge of being dropped.

Then you have Jordan Russell, who had a brilliant first half of the season but has gone missing of late. Likewise, Heath Scotland can count himself lucky that a lack of depth keeps him in the side.

Collingwood will plot against Carlton’s midfield by focusing on tiring Judd. To do so they will implement their round six tactic of rotating a number of players on him. Look for players like Dale Thomas, Sharrod Wellingham and Ben Johnson to each spend five minute bursts on Judd.

 Carlton’s biggest problem is their lack of a genuine spine. Jarryd Waite is the only “tall” standing up. Michael Jamison has gone backwards, Setanta O’hAilpin is no longer in the team and young forward Lachlan Henderson, despite being in his third AFL season, is simply not ready yet. Further, the Blues haven’t overcome the season-ending loss of ruckman Matthew Kreuzer.

Against Collingwood, Carlton will need something special from their small forwards to cause the upset. In particular Eddie Betts needs to stand up. Betts started the season in brilliant fashion but has struggled of late. One feels that he must kick at least five goals if the Blues are to have any chance.

But I can’t see it happening. Collingwood has knocked over Carlton by around nine goals the last two times they have met. I’m expecting more of the same on Saturday. Back Collingwood to win by over 39.5 points.